Hurricane Season may get interesting


If you read our earlier blog where it was determine that the EL Nino that has been in a steady and strengthening phase has stopped and changed direction. This means the Kryptonite that affects how many tropical storms/Hurricanes form across the Atlantic Basin is no longer there. We may enter a period where the remainder of the coming season (through the end of November) very well could indicate the second (and normally more active) half could bring near to slightly above normal tropical activity for the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico  

NOAA is now calling for 10-17 named storms (with sustained winds of at least 35kts and higher). From then 10-17 names storms,  6-9 would be expected to reach Hurricane strength (sustained winds at least 65kt)  and of those, 2-4 are expected to become Major Hurricanes (Category 3 and higher). For comparison, during a normal season there are 12named storms of which 6 become Hurricane and three end up becoming Major Hurricanes. 

So far during the 2019 Hurricane Season we have had sub-tropical storm Andrea (never officially reaches tropical status) and Tropical Storm Barry.  

Keep in mind even though the forecast of 10-17names storms is an increase during a normal year, there is NO WAY to predict where these storms will form. It is very possible that many could form over the open waters and never affect any land area. Considering we are about a month of the peak of the Hurricane Season, with a second peak in early to mid October, the chances of at least one affecting land/populated areas is pretty good. 

For the latest on the tropics and what the longer term data/trends are showing or if you have a coming voyage/weather need where the topics are a concern, please give us a call at 1-866-505-OMNI(6664) or email Ocmarnav@aol.com









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Ocean Marine Nav. Inc.

Bob Jones

Marine Meteorologist
Ops Manager
Toll-free: 1-866-505-OMNI (6664)
Fax: 1-908-548-0880


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