A white Christmas – a last look

With only 2 full days until Christmas, one more look at the chance of a White Christmas hasn’t changed a great deal. After the recent significant snows across the Northeast/US the “other” White Christmas will occur this year with having snow already on the ground. Will these areas see snow again Christmas Eve night or on Christmas Day?

As of now, the more northern regions of the Northeast like upstate New York and across Maine and Vermont will have the best chance for snow showers on Christmas Day, while the Great Lakes and portions of the northern Ohio Valley will see snow fall on Christmas Eve.

Further west plenty of cold air is in place for a more widespread area of Christmas Eve snow from the northern and central Rockies and westward into the mountains of California/Oregon and Washington. At this point, you can’t rule out western Oregon and Washington as cold air nearly reaches the coast on Christmas Eve. Over the more higher elevations some areas could experience a foot or two of snow from Christmas Eve through Christmas night.

Over the northern plains there is a better chance for some mixed precipitation which could affect travel in this region as some warm air over-rides cold air in place during Christmas Day eve-night.

There you have it. That is our look at a White Christmas. We would like to wish each and every one a very, merry Christmas and may you receive the gift(s) you wanted. Drive (or cruise) safely this holiday season


Nordhavn and Fubar

If you have read our blogs recently, you may have noticed one type of vessel more than any other. Nordhavn. Since Ocean Marine Nav started business, we have been working closely with Nordhavn owners. In fact, Nordhavn owners make up the majority of the vessels we work with. Why, well word of mouth and relationship go along way. From the early days of Ocean Marine to present day, we continue to work with some original owners who started us from day 1. Milt Baker of M/Y Bluewater (Nordhavn 47) and Bruce Kessler (Spirit of Zopilote) have been great supporters of our work and have been a big reason Ocean Marine Nav has been so successful during the last 15years.

It is unfortunate, we don’t get the chance to meet our clients as often as possible, but we have made visits to the Ft. Lauderdale Boat show and hope to again in the next year or two. We’ve been able to make in person weather briefings for both the Medbound Rally as well as the FUBAR Odyssey in 2007 and hope to be back in San Diego in November 2009 for the next FUBAR Odyssey. It is tough to visit the Ft. Lauderdale Boat Show then the next week fly to San Diego for the FUBAR, so we may not be able to attend Ft. Lauderdale if we are invited to do the FUBAR Odyssey in November. If you are looking for a great bunch of people to do a “well organized” 10-15 day cruise with from San Diego to La Paz, the 2009 FUBAR Odyssey is for you.

Nordhavn owners have a presence, but any boat that is willing and more importantly, able to make the run, can do this venture. If you would like more information on the Fubar Odyssey check out the San Diego Yacht Club. For more on Nordhavn vessels and the people behind them, check out www.nordhavn.com Alot of great information on this site including profiles on other Nordhavn around the world including M/Y Egret who we have taken half way around the world during the last 18months. More on M/Y Egret later.

Tomorrow, we will make our last prediction for a white Christmas across the continental US.


A White Christmas – Part 3

It’s only 7 days until Christmas. Hard to believe but it seems like every year it comes faster and faster.

The pattern is a bit more interesting prior to Christmas Day with the development of a significant snow storm moving across the NE/US and producing 6-12inches of snow on Friday. However, there is the chance snow will develop again on Christmas eve for this region. Chances are a low center that does develop will tend to move through the St Lawrence River Valley through Christmas Eve and rain/mixed precip will fall in this region. However, as colder air comes in behind it, Snow and Snow showers could spread as far east as NY city.

There is the chance of some snow showers and very cold temperatures across the Great Lakes region Christmas Day, but some mixed precip includuing freezing rain may move in during Chrimas Day night. Further west snow and snow showers will tend to develop across the central and northern Rocky Mountains as a strong low pressure area off the WA/OR coast on Christmas Eve slowly weakens.

We will take one more look at the chances of a White Christmas across the country in a few more days.


A White Christmas – Part 2

During the last several days, the forecast models have been jumping around the bit but fortunately, not to the extend where one day a major storm is expected and the next day no low. Actually the more consistent pattern is a good thing since that tells us that the model data may be picking up on something. The short term data has been pretty good the last several days, so a little bit more confidence is building up even though we are still 10 days until Christmas.

As of now, the places across the country that have a shot of having a White Christmas won’t see it. The air will tend to be plenty cold front over the northern two thirds of the country. From the southern NJ area westward across the upper Tennessee Valley then westward across Oklahoma and the central Rockies, the air will be cold enough to support snow. However, there doesn’t appear to be a storm anywhere from coast to coast. Not an impossibility, but consider the timing. There will be places that see some snow fall during Christmas eve or Christmas Day and they’ll be limited to the higher elevations of the northern-central Rockies (Utah south across western Colorado and the mountains of California and Nevada.). Further east across the Northeastern US and eastern Great Lakes the more northern states from Maine to New York a disturbance may bring some light snow as far south as NY city during Christmas eve night and early Christmas morning, but nothing that would accumulate. Most of the day, the snow will be limited to the “Lake Effect” regions of New York eastward across northern Maine.

Now this forecast isn’t etched in stone either. Plenty of changes can develop over the next 10 days, so who knows, changes could still occur and who knows, maybe snow will work further south and cover a broader area. Look at it this way, if the pattern stays like this, most of the country would enjoy good travel weather……



For those of you who enjoy reading blogs (besides this one), clients of ours have a very informative blog since they departed San Diego in April 2007.

Their blog begins in Feb 2006 during the construction of Kosmos and runs through present time. We have been providing our service during portions of the trip, not all of it, again, the beauty of our service. You can plub us in, plug us out as you needed. Exactly as designed and Eric and Christi Grab, owners of Kosmos, have used the service the way it was intended. To provide weather assistance during the portions of the trip they felt needed it. They could have had service every day since day, but they didn’t and to be honest, they don’t need it every day.

During their trip they have been able to see many sights around the world and are taking the time to see many things you or I will never see and probably wouldn’t see even on cable or satellite TV. Eric and Christi are enjoying their 45ft Nordhavn as they travel from exotic port to exotic port, then take the time to see most of the places they’ve been.

If you want to reach out to them or want to see what they’ve done on their around the world cruise so far, checkout thier blog at: kosmos.liveflux.net/blog/


Long term models

Just a few days ago, the long term model data was showing a significant storm moving through the central US on Christmas Eve then turning NE-ward across the Ohio Valley then heading into the St Lawrence River Valley and New England states on Christmas day. A low such as this with cold air to the north/west would have brought significant snows to the Great Lakes regions, maybe even western New York and the ski areas of northern New England.

Today, the same long term models doesn’t show the low and now doesn’t show that much cold air moving across the northern States. In fact a good portion of the country is looking to have fair skies versus clouds and precipitation……Granted this model data is forecasting the movement of air parcels where they will be in 13-15 days, so this far out there is bound to be some error, but what I find interesting is how much of a swing this data can make and in such a short period of time. If a more gradual shift in the pattern was happening over a period of 7 days, then that would indicate that the data is good and the errors were getting less as we get closer to that day. But when you go from the chance of snow and cold temps in the model data a day ago to no storm, no precip and milder temps the next day…… that’s a bit concerning.

Such big swings are not uncommon with these models. Yes, they are trying to forecast for as many as 16-17 days out. So far out that the local news won’t even forecast out that far. They’ll stick to the standard 5 days forecast and may dangle an extra day or two without much detail or as aside to the broadcast…..but I digress.

The important thing to remember about the long term model data no matter how far out it goes is to watch for the forecast trend it is showing and a one day flip/flop isn’t a major concern as of yet. Watching this data and looking at the movement of cold air and does it start to show consistency in upcoming runs. That is what will more accurately show what is to be expected in the longer term. So, even though this big swing is not a big concern today and the subsequent runs could show a return to the low center moving across the Great Lakes and into New York…..we shall see.


A white Christmas

When you hear someone say, I wish we had a white Christmas, what does that mean…… Do they mean having snow on the ground prior on Christmas day or having it snow on Christmas eve or Christmas morning. Well, that may depend on where you live.

For those in the more northern areas of the country, where snow is already on the ground and will likely remain there through January or February, these areas typically have a “snow on the ground White Christmas” every year. Except for the years where air temps are well above normal and whatever snow falls melts shortly after falling. For the vast majority of the country, snow won’t be on the ground Christmas day and for those living in the more southern latitudes the chances of snow being on the ground or even falling on Christmas eve or Christmas day would be nothing short of a miracle.

What about those areas that are definately cold enough but the snow, but the snow that falls isn’t enough or the timing is off. To me, having snow falling on Christmas Eve or Christmas morning is the answer to having to White Christmas. Yeah, having a snow storm on Christmas eve or Christmas Day would mess up travel plans and getting together with family and friends, but wouldn’t be great to have just a little snow fall. If you live in an area that the chances of having a white Christmas are low, but still a very good posibility, once can only wonder….. will it happen this year.

Well, during the next few weeks, we will take a look at the weather pattern to see if this year is the year those areas that don’t experience a white Christmas have a chance this year……..stay tuned……….

B/Rgds, Bob/OMNI

Cold Air

Technically, it is still fall. However, cold air has been moving southward from Canada and across the United States during the last few weeks. Temperatures across the Northeast will be some 10-15deg colder than normal this weekend, then after a brief warm up, back into the ice box with the chance of significant snows during the mid to later parts of the week.

The cold air is also affecting the USWC with a series of storms moving in across the PNW bringing gale to storm force onshore winds followed by cold fronts that bring shifting NW to NE winds and colder temps. As the air moves southward, so does the weather front and there is the chance of low centers developing along these fronts as they slow their movement. This will bring increasing NW-N conditions to the California-Baja coast.

The US Gulf will see the cold air move south and following a strong cold front on Tue-Wed and northerly gale force winds will develop. When Gale force northerly winds develop in this region, gale force winds with gusts to storm force are likely across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and considering the amount of cold air coming down over the next week to 10 days, winds will have a tendency to be higher for longer periods of time following by slower/shorter weakening trends.

Once has to wonder, if this is still considerd the fall, what kind of winter are we in store for…… Well, if you listen to the media, it sounds like we could see a colder than average winter. Fortuntely, the cold temperatures we have been experiencing shouldn’t be reflected into official “winter statistics” but most people will remember the cold month of December. Meteorological winter starts in December and runs through February, so it depends on which calender you following, the traditional calender or the meteorological one.


The Great Siberian Sushi Run

Here is a unique opportunity if you are looking to take a trip that allows you to see a part of the world that most will never see and that includes even some of the most yacht Captains and cruisers.

The Great Siberian Sushi Run (a.k.a. as “the GSSR”) is being called a mini rally by organizer Ken Williams of M/Y Sans Souci. On or around May 1st 2008 the current group of 3 boats will depart Seattle and gradually work their way to Japan via the Gulf of Alaska, the Bering Sea, the Sea of Okhotsk and Ocean Marine Nav, Inc (O.M.N.I.) will be providing weather support.

Careful planing on Ken’s part has made this trip more fun than work since the longest non-stop voyage will be 500nm days and the longest run without fuel will be 1100nm while remaining within 300nm of land. This will be a voyage that give all those onboard the chance to see new and unique places in an area that is mostly visited by commercial ships or Alaskan fishing boats.

During the voyage we will be in close, daily contact with the vessels taking part, all the boats involved are current clients, Ken and Roberta Williams, M/Y Sans Souci (a Nordhavn 68); Braun and Tina Jones of M/Y Grey Pearl (Nordhavn 62) and Steve and Carol Argosy of M/Y Seaboard (Nordhavn 62). In staying in close contact with these vessels, there will be plenty of time and warning given if conditions are not favorable for departure. In fact, it is part of our normal operation practice to advise a vessel to stay in port for a day, a few days a week or longer if conditions are not condusive to a pleasure cruise. Safety is and always will be the number one concern during this project or any other vessel we handle. 

If you are interested in learning more about the Great Siberian Sushi Run (GSSR) stop by Kens Williams blog page at: www.kensblog.com/ for more information and if you want to join the rest. There will be some preperation needed to do this run, so if you’re thinking about joining everyone for this trip, contact Ken as soon as possible for more details. Bob/OMNI