It has taken some time, but earlier today the NHC upgraded the disturbance in the eastern Atlantic to a Tropical Depression, the second one of the season. Even though we have an El Nino going that does not mean we can’t have tropical cyclones. Model data has been consistent so far in bring the depression toward the west, then it weakens. Longer range model data has also indicating another tropical cyclone develops in a few days off the coast of Africa and it moves along a W-WNW course for most of the coming 2 weeks.
Longer Range model data has also been consistent in the motion of this second tropical depression during the coming 2 weeks. A line that is about 60-90nm wide from northern Puerto Rico toward southern Florida have been the primary focus in the model data. Considering the strength of the high ridge pattern during the last few weeks and what is expected the next week or two, the forecast track trend seems reasonable at this time.
It is very important to stay in touch with updates on the tropics this time of the year, especially if you live along the Carolina coast or southward to Florida.
Longer Range model data has also been consistent in the motion of this second tropical depression during the coming 2 weeks. A line that is about 60-90nm wide from northern Puerto Rico toward southern Florida have been the primary focus in the model data. Considering the strength of the high ridge pattern during the last few weeks and what is expected the next week or two, the forecast track trend seems reasonable at this time.
It is very important to stay in touch with updates on the tropics this time of the year, especially if you live along the Carolina coast or southward to Florida.