Month: September 2019

At 5pm the National Hurricane center upgraded the potential Tropical Cyclone 9 to Tropical Depression 9 with a maximum sustained winds of 25kts with gusts to 35kt. Looking at the satellite imagery, it is nearly impossible to fine a closed center but the forecast data has been fairly consistent to increase TD/9 to a Tropical Storm then a Hurricane off the northern coast of Florida. 

Upper level shear will eventually turn tropical cyclone 9 away from the northern Florida coast then should take it out to sea into next week as a Hurricane.  

For now, the Florida, Georgia and South/North Carolina coasts should be have a significant impact from Tropical Cyclone 9. Don't expect significant storm surge as the motion should remain constant and Tropical Cyclone 9 won't be as strong or stall as Hurricane Dorian did. 

Data also suggests another developing tropical cyclone could impact the NE Caribbean in/about 7 days. Thereafter the Tropical cyclone could either turn northward toward as a Hurricane or continue W-WNW toward the Bahamas and maybe, just maybe the U.S. East Coast. Data is not consistent on the track but data has been showing the trend of a tropical cyclone in this region during Sep 20-22….. Stay tuned! 

Oops, our last post was not as accurate as it could/should have been. Here is an updated list that shows Hurricane Dorian now as the 9th strongest Atlantic Hurricane (based on minimum Barometric pressure).

Why use Barometric pressure? We have been flying into Hurricanes since the 1940's.  The term Hurricane Hunters began in 1946 and the Barometric pressure is measured in the central of the eye where the winds are calmest. Measuring wind speeds at the surface is a challenge at levels above 100mph as the instruments measuring the winds can be damaged. This is exactly what happened to Hurricane Camille when it made landfall as all the wind instruments were damaged/destroyed so the winds of 175mph are only estimates. 

Hurricane Wilma 2005 – Minimum central pressure 882mb.  Also holds the record for smallest diameter eye center at only 2nm wide. 

Hurricane Gilbert 2008 – Minimum central pressure 888mb. Noted for dropping 70mb in a 24hrs period. 

Florida Keys Labor Day Hurricane 1935 – Minimum central pressure 892mb

Hurricane Rita 2005 – Minimum central pressure 895mb

Hurricane Camile 1969 – Minimum central pressure 900mb

Hurricane Mitch 1998 – Minimum central pressure 905mb

Hurricane Dean 2007 – Minimum Central pressure 905mb 

Hurricane Maria 2017 – Minimum Central pressure 908mb

Hurricane Dorian 2019 – minimum Central pressure 910mb

Hurricane Allen 1980 – Minimum central pressure 911mb

Hurricane Michael 2018 – Minimum central pressure 919mb

Other notable Hurricanes but not as strong as Dorian…

Hurricane Katrina 2005 – Minimum central pressure 920mb

Hurricane Andrew 1992 – minimum central pressure 922mb

And we have a developing tropical depression/storm in the Gulf of Mexico and two other tropical disturbances across the Atlantic Basin with a new/strong tropical wave expected to move off the coast of Africa later in the week. 

Looks like September is trying to make up for a relatively quiet June to mid August. 

At 2pm (1800UTC) on Sep 01 Hurricane Dorian attained a barometric pressure of 911mb. This makes Hurricane Dorian the 7th strongest Hurricane (based on surface pressure) in the history of recording Hurricane data. 

Hurricane WILMA (2005) reached the lowest barometric pressure ever recorded in an Atlantic Basin hurricane: 882 millibars. Her 185 MPH sustained winds 

Hurricane GILBERT(1988)  reached an air pressure low of 888 millibars.

In 1935, scientists recorded a low-pressure reading of 892 millibars in the LABOR DAY Hurricane.

Hurricane ALLEN  (1980) clobbered Texas after plummeting to 899 millibars.

Hurricane RITA(2005), which inflicted major damage in Texas, sank to 895 millibars at its lowest point.

Hurricane KATRINA(2005) wreaked havoc on New Orleans and the Gulf Coast having reached a barometric low-pressure reading of 902 millibars. When KATRINA made her second landfall, she still registered as low as 920 millibars.

Hurricane CAMILLE(1969) also reached a low of 900 millibars.

*Hurricane DORIAN(2019) Reached a low a 911mb just prior to moving over the Abaco Islands, Bahamas. 

Hurricane ANDREW(1992)  decimated Florida, making landfall as a Category 5 storm. The lowest pressure reading of the monster storm fell to 922 millibars.

*Currently underway, pressure was the latest strength as provided by the National Hurricane Center. 

At this time, Hurricane Dorian is stronger than Hurricane Andrew, and slightly weaker than Hurricane Camille. With some interaction with the northern Bahamas islands and the shallowness of the water, Dorian may have reached its peak (for the day), but will remain at least Category 4 Hurricane over the next 24-36hrs. 

The track of Dorian will impact the southern half of the US East Coast. Weakening will occur, but could still have Hurricane conditions while still south of Cape Hatteras. The question will be how close. 

We are also watching a new area of disturbed weather that has moved off the coast of Africa. The chances this area becomes at least a tropical depression are likely over the next 48-72hrs. 

For the latest or Hurricane Dorian and how it will affect you/your vessel and/or the developing tropical depression over the eastern Atlantic contact Ocean Marine Nav Inc at ocmarnav@aol.com or 1-866-505-6664.

Bob/OMNI