I know, I know. There’s over 2 feet of snow across the Mid Atlantic region after back to back blizzards and there is talk about the upcoming Hurricane Season already. Well, this is the time of the year when those behind long range Hurricane model prediction put out their initial estimate for the coming season. So far, it looks like this coming year will be a slightly above average season with 15 total Tropical Storms/Hurricanes. The current El Nino pattern should begin to weaken or be in a weakening phase as we move into spring and this may allow for the seasonal total to improve from last years below normal values.
There is also anticipate of a cooler/wetter summer across the SE/US and parts of the Mid Atlantic region, suggesting the storm track pattern may stay a bit more south this year. If this is the case, there may be a trend for tropical cyclone activity to turn away from the coast. The prediction of 15 named storms gives us no idea as to where these expected tropical systems will develop, track to or when to expect them. At this point, there is no way to know where the storms of these systems will develop even if thre of them are expected to become Major Hurricanes. It is possible one, two or all three will remain well offshore and impact only shipping. It is also possible that all three make landfall. I guess we’ll find out.
There will be updates to this prediction late this spring/summer. Considering how well the prediction for the winter across the eastern/U.S. was this year. One has to wonder if the long range correct forecast streak will continue. Bob/OMNI
There is also anticipate of a cooler/wetter summer across the SE/US and parts of the Mid Atlantic region, suggesting the storm track pattern may stay a bit more south this year. If this is the case, there may be a trend for tropical cyclone activity to turn away from the coast. The prediction of 15 named storms gives us no idea as to where these expected tropical systems will develop, track to or when to expect them. At this point, there is no way to know where the storms of these systems will develop even if thre of them are expected to become Major Hurricanes. It is possible one, two or all three will remain well offshore and impact only shipping. It is also possible that all three make landfall. I guess we’ll find out.
There will be updates to this prediction late this spring/summer. Considering how well the prediction for the winter across the eastern/U.S. was this year. One has to wonder if the long range correct forecast streak will continue. Bob/OMNI