A White Christmas – Part 2

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During the last several days, the forecast models have been jumping around the bit but fortunately, not to the extend where one day a major storm is expected and the next day no low. Actually the more consistent pattern is a good thing since that tells us that the model data may be picking up on something. The short term data has been pretty good the last several days, so a little bit more confidence is building up even though we are still 10 days until Christmas.

As of now, the places across the country that have a shot of having a White Christmas won’t see it. The air will tend to be plenty cold front over the northern two thirds of the country. From the southern NJ area westward across the upper Tennessee Valley then westward across Oklahoma and the central Rockies, the air will be cold enough to support snow. However, there doesn’t appear to be a storm anywhere from coast to coast. Not an impossibility, but consider the timing. There will be places that see some snow fall during Christmas eve or Christmas Day and they’ll be limited to the higher elevations of the northern-central Rockies (Utah south across western Colorado and the mountains of California and Nevada.). Further east across the Northeastern US and eastern Great Lakes the more northern states from Maine to New York a disturbance may bring some light snow as far south as NY city during Christmas eve night and early Christmas morning, but nothing that would accumulate. Most of the day, the snow will be limited to the “Lake Effect” regions of New York eastward across northern Maine.

Now this forecast isn’t etched in stone either. Plenty of changes can develop over the next 10 days, so who knows, changes could still occur and who knows, maybe snow will work further south and cover a broader area. Look at it this way, if the pattern stays like this, most of the country would enjoy good travel weather……