I can’t remember the last time the tropical western Pacific Ocean has been so quiet. The last Tropical Cyclone was TS Nuri that first formed east of the Philippines on June 10th that slowly worked its way across the Philippines to the East China Sea through June 15th. Since then, there have been no official tropical cyclones across the entire western Tropical Pacific Ocean. Odd, very odd.
However, we are playing with borrowed time. As time goes on through July, there is an increasing probability that convection will form, deepen and eventually become a tropical cyclone across the tropical western Pacific.
As long as the upper level winds do not tear the convection apart. So, even though the western tropics are very quiet, I suspect once we get the first one, we will see a steady trend of tropical cyclones forming that will continue through the Fall.