Sea surface temps are on the warm side as per the below data that comes from the Multiscale Ultrahigh Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (MUR SST) project, based at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Even though we had a busy season, it does not necessarily mean a busy season for the overall Hurricane season. The peak of the season comes during the first 2 weeks of September and the Cape Verde season hasn’t even begun yet…. so it could get interesting later this summer…..
It is one of those seasons where the we have a busier early season then we go through dry spell. The dry spell can be followed by a very active August, September and even October before the season ends on a quiet note in November. The current expectation is for as many as 19 named storms over the Atlantic, but the air across the Atlantic has been on the dry side. The cause of the drier air is part of the sand moving west across the Atlantic Ocean from Africa.
The may be a developing La Nina across the eastern Pacific. As it develops lighter westerly winds across the Atlantic Ocean could ease. If the winds can ease and the dry air gives way to increased thunderstorm activity. A developing La Nina will help produce lighter westerly winds and this should allow for more favorable conditions to allow tropical depressions/storms and Hurricanes to form. We have yet to see a Major Hurricane yet, but if conditions become more favorable through the coming months, we could get more than one major Hurricane.